2016 French Open Preview

May 20, 2016 | By Brian Coleman
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Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams both remain atop the men’s and women’s tours as we prepare for the second Grand Slam of the year, the 2016 French Open, May 22-June 5. The clay courts of Roland Garros will provide a challenge for some as Stan Wawrinka looks to defend his title and Serena looks to continue her dominance over the WTA Tour in defending the women’s title.

 

Men’s side of the draw
The contenders
Undisputed world number one Novak Djokovic will enter Roland Garros as the odds-on favorite to win it all, and even though he has never won the French Open, you would be hard-pressed to pick against the Serb. He is a three-time finalist at the tournament and has posted a record of 28-1 thus far in 2016 (as of his Miami Open title). With the rest of the field clearly not up to par with Djokovic, this could be his year to finally hoist the title at Roland Garros.

Despite his injuries and inconsistent play over the last year or so, Rafael Nadal still holds the title of “King of Clay.” The Spaniard has won the French Open nine times and won 39 straight matches at the Paris tournament before falling to the aforementioned Djokovic in last year’s quarterfinals. If there was ever a time for Nadal to silence those who believe his best tennis is behind him, this tournament, which made him an all-time great, is it. Nadal has already shown signs of his form returning as evidenced by winning the ninth Monte Carlo Rolex Masters title of his career in April and his ninth Barcelona title.

Andy Murray is a three-time semifinalist at the French Open and lost in the semifinals a year ago to Djokovic. Clay has never been his best surface, but he showed signs of improvement last year. He won the first clay court title of his career at the BMW Open and followed that up by winning the Madrid Open, demonstrating he could beat the top players on clay. This will be his first Grand Slam as a father, and look for Murray to try and make young Sophia proud.

It would be impossible to call the tournament’s defending champion anything but a contender. Stan Wawrinka played one of the best matches of his life in last year’s final, a thrilling four-set triumph over Djokovic. His 2016 season has been an up and down so far, but the Swiss seems to rise to the occasion in the major tournaments. If his one-handed backhand is on, Wawrinka is as good as anyone.

 



 

The pretenders
A quarterfinalist last year and a finalist in 2013, David Ferrer’s game seems to be perfectly suited for the clay surface. He is a relentless worker on the baseline and has some of the best groundstrokes in the world. But at age 34, Ferrer has been pedestrian so far this year, posting a record of 12-7 as of mid-April and it will tough for him to make it through two weeks of best-of-five sets play. While he will certainly not be an easy out, don’t look for Ferrer to advance past the first week.

A Frenchman hasn’t won the French Open title since Yannick Noah in 1983, a streak that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and the rest of his countrymen would love to break. But Tsonga has been inconsistent for someone who certainly has the talent to be a perennial top five player. He is a two-time semifinalist at Roland Garros, but his 11-6 record in 2016 is an indicator of his up and down play, and if he is ineffective with his serve, Tsonga can become a beatable player.

Tomas Berdych is one of the most gifted players on the tour at 6’5” and 203 pounds. But the French Open has never been kind to the Czech. Since reaching the semifinals in 2010, he has been ousted in the first round twice and the fourth round twice, and his inability to consistently hit from the baseline hurts him. Despite his obvious talent, Berdych will be on upset alert and could be one of the first players from the top 10 eliminated in Paris.

 



 

The sleepers
Kei Nishikori is one of the most fun players to watch on the ATP Tour. At just 5’10”, Nishikori is fantastic from the baseline and can return with the best of him. We have seen how well he can play at the Grand Slams, and when healthy, he has shown that he can beat the world’s best. He reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros one year ago and will build on that performance this time around.

Milos Raonic has always been known for his power and big serve, but the Canadian’s performance so far in 2016 has shown that he is capable of playing an all-around game. During his semifinal run at the Australian Open, Raonic showed the tennis world his ability to serve and volley and play at the net, most notably in his win over Wawrinka. While clay may not be the most suitable for a power-player, look for Raonic to try and squash that narrative.

The enigmatic Gael Monfils is certainly one of the most entertaining players on the ATP Tour. He plays with a flare and charisma that no other player on the planet does, but that sometimes gets him into trouble. He played in one of the best matches of 2016, a quarterfinal loss to Nishikori, and showed that the Frenchman may be on the brink of a breakthrough. If he can harness his talent and stay focused, the 2008 French Open semifinalist could be a dark horse on the Paris clay.

Richard Gasquet enjoyed a great comeback season in 2015. After struggling with a back injury through most of 2014, Gasquet went 43-17 last year and reached the Wimbledon semifinals and French Open fourth round. He has some of the best groundstrokes and possesses a one-handed backhand which, much like Federer’s and Wawrinka’s, can really give opponents fits. If Gasquet is feeling healthy in Paris, the 10th ranked player in the world could be a factor late in this tournament.

 



 

Women’s side of the draw
The contenders
Despite her struggles so far in 2016 (she has yet to win a title), Serena Williams will head into Roland Garros as the favorite. She is the defending champion, having defeated Lucie Safarova in last year’s final, and has won this tournament three times in her career. It will be interesting to see how Serena’s body holds up as she has clearly been rusty this year thanks to a lack of match play, but her passion and intensity make her tough to beat.

While Serena is clearly in a field of her own, if there is one player capable of beating her it is Victoria Azarenka. The Belarusian has proven that already this season, beating Serena in the Indian Wells final, and going on to complete the Sunshine Double with her title at the Miami Open. The best showing of her career at Roland Garros was a semifinal appearance in 2013, but as she is finally feeling healthy after almost two years of nagging injuries, look for Azarenka to be playing for the trophy in early June.

Agnieszka Radwanska’s style of play is one that is tailor-made for the clay courts of Roland Garros. She doesn’t play with a ton of power but loves to rally, and has the craftiness to take out just about any player on tour. Her best showing in Paris was a quarterfinal trip back in 2013 and she hasn’t won a clay court title since 2012, but “The Professor,” as she is known to her peers on the WTA Tour, plays clean, efficient tennis, and could make some serious noise if she can find her consistent serve.

Garbine Muguruza had her best season to date in 2015. The young Spaniard reached the Wimbledon final and broke into the top 10. She went on to reach the semifinals of the end of the year WTA finals and would finish 2015 as the third ranked player in the world. She has had her struggles in 2016, mainly due to injuries, but the big-hitting Muguruza has shown she can advance far at Grand Slams. She has reached the quarterfinals in France each of the last two years, and will look to build on that success this time around.  

 



 

The sleepers
Svetlana Kuznetsova has had a resurgent 2016 up to this point. She hasn’t won a title since the 2009 China Open, but she played some of her best tennis at the Miami Open, upending world number one Serena Williams on her way to the final. Despite losing to Victoria Azarenka in straight sets in the final, her showing proved that she may have regained the form that made her a two-time Grand Slam champion. Kuznetsova reached the Roland Garros final all the way back in 2004, but don’t be surprised if she makes a deep run again this time around.

Ana Ivanovic etched herself in the minds of tennis fans everywhere when she won the French Open back in 2008 at just 20-years-old. But since then, the Serb has struggled to find her consistency, going 17 consecutive Grand Slams after that without reaching a quarterfinal. That streak ended last year, however, when she surged into the Roland Garros semifinals. There may be something about the Paris clay that brings out the best in Ivanovic, and despite an up and down 2016, the Serb could make a deep run at the tournament she won eight years ago.

Eugenie Bouchard is one of the most enigmatic players on the WTA Tour. Many thought a number of Grand Slams were in her future after a wonderful 2014 campaign that saw her reach the Australian Open and French Open semifinals, and the Wimbledon final. But 2015 was a tough year for the young Canadian because of injuries and inconsistency. She has been able to stay healthy on court so far in 2016, and her dormant potential could finally wake up in France.

Injuries have hindered Petra Kvitova’s 2016 season up to this point, but the Czech could be primed for a deep run at the French Open. The two-time Wimbledon champion has seen most of her career success come on grass, but her big powerful serve from the left side can give opponents trouble, and she has proven her might at Grand Slams before. She has hired a new coach, Frantisek Cermak, following a split from her coach of seven years, David Kotyza, in January, and could shock a lot of people with her performance in France.

 



 

The pretenders
Karolina Pliskova is one of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour, but that style of play doesn’t always translate to the clay surface. The Czech has been a consistent top 20 player for the last year or so, but has struggled at all four Grand Slams. She has never made it out of the third round at any of the majors, and has only reached the second-round twice in Paris. Despite her obvious talent and size, don’t look for Pliskova to make a deep run on the French clay.

Venus Williams had a resurgent 2015 season. At the age of 34 going on 35, she won three titles last season and beat a number of top 10 opponents. She started off 2016 well, winning the Taiwan Open, but was bounced early from Miami and Charleston. Her best showing at the French Open in her career was a final appearance in 2002, and at her age, it will be tough for one of the all-time greats to find her consistent form for two weeks in Paris.

Sloane Stephens has had a fantastic 2016 up to this point. The American already has three titles to her name, and won the Volvo Car Open in Charleston, a clay-court tournament. She has been bounced in the fourth round of the French Open each of the last four seasons, and she has not had a lot of success at Grand Slams since her 2013 season, when she reached the Australian Open semifinals and Wimbledon quarterfinals. Look for that trend to continue in Roland Garros despite her excellent play through the first few months of the season.


Brian Coleman

 Brian Coleman is the Senior Editor for New York Tennis Magazine. He may be reached at brianc@usptennis.com

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