The 2024 tennis season begins where it always does, on the other side of the world in Australia. While it isn’t the first tournament to be played this year, the 2024 Australian Open represents the birth of a new season on the pro tours, and is the first pivotal event of the tennis calendar. The world’s top players will arrive in Melbourne in mid-January to battle it out.

A year ago, the 111th installment of the Australian Open was played, and resulted in one player winning yet another major title, while another captured their first.

On the Men’s Singles side, Novak Djokovic won his 10^th Australian Open title. A year removed from the drama that barred him from competing in the event, Djokovic lost just one set during his two weeks in Melbourne in 2023. For Belarus’ Aryna Sabalenka, the Australian Open will now forever hold a special place in her heart after she won the event in 2023 to take home her maiden Slam trophy.

As we approach the 2024 Australian Open, New York Tennis Magazine breaks down the Contenders, Pretenders and Sleepers:

Contenders, Pretenders, Sleepers

Contenders – Men’s Singles

Novak Djokovic

The greatest player of all-time will be seeking yet another major title when he arrives in Australia, and he enters this year’s event as a pretty heavy betting favorite. In his career, Djokovic has as many Australian Open titles as most people have fingers, and has won the last four titles Down Under that he has played in. Djokovic will be seeking to expand on his record as he pursues his 25^th career major, and if someone wants to dethrone the Serb, they will have to take it from him, as Djokovic rarely makes mistakes, and often takes advantage of his opponents.

Carlos Alcaraz

If there is any player who can match Djokovic shot-for-shot, it is presumably Alcaraz. He has already done something that most players can’t claim and that’s defeating him at a Grand Slam as he upended him in the epic Wimbledon championship last summer. Now, of the four majors, the Australian Open is the one where Alcaraz has had his least success (never made it out of the third-round). Whether that’s because he is a slow starter to the season or something else, it’s hard to imagine that trend continuing in 2024. Alcaraz has all the physical tools and has demonstrated his mental toughness as well, and he will present the biggest challenge to Djokovic.

Jannik Sinner

When we enter a new season on the ATP and WTA Tours, its fun to look at some of the top players and see who has a legitimate chance of winning their first major. On the men’s side, look no further than Jannik Sinner. The 22-year-old Italian continues his ascent and enjoyed the best year of his career in 2023, creating momentum he hopes to bring into this year. Sinner ended his season on a high note, defeating Novak Djokovic at the ATP Finals and reaching the championship match of that event before then leading the Italian team to the Davis Cup title. Sinner finally broke through into the semifinals of a major last year, reaching the final four at Wimbledon, but has only reached the quarterfinals of the other three majors, including at the 2022 Australian Open. He is one of the hardest hitters on tour which will translate well to the fast courts Down Under, and he has seemed to find the right coaching staff to get the most out of his game after bringing on Darren Cahill, which bodes well for his chances to win this year’s Australian Open.

Contenders – Women’s Singles

Aryna Sabalenka

The second-ranked woman in the world will enter this year’s Australian Open in an unfamiliar position: as the defending champion. Sabalenka won her first major a year ago and will now set out to win it for the second consecutive time. One of the biggest hitters on the women’s side, Sabalenka has the type of game that is perfect for the first major of the season, which makes her a favorite once again. At one time, Sabalenka’s biggest weakness was probably herself, as she went through struggles with her serve, but those seem to be far in the rearview mirror now. She followed up her Aussie title last year by winning in Madrid, and then reached the finals of the U.S. Open. Sabalenka has shown she can win on the biggest stages, and has the power game that allows her to hit through anyone, making her a strong favorite to open up the year defending her Aussie title.

Iga Swiatek

It’s strange to say, but Iga Swiatek did not have the typical dominant season we have become accustomed to, especially in comparison to 2022. But she will managed to win six titles, capture another French Open title and finish the year as the world number one, and is unequivocally still one of the most dominant players on tour. Swiatek was bounced early in Melbourne a year ago, falling to Elena Rybakina in the fourth round, but the year prior she reached the semifinals, and is poised to go further this time around. Despite an early exit at the U.S. Open, Swiatek finished her year in strong fashion, winning the China Open and finishing her season by dominating the WTA Finals, not losing a single set throughout the event to reestablish her position atop the women’s game. Now that she has regained the #1 spot in the WTA Rankings, look for an even more motivated Swiatek in 2024, which will begin with her pursuit of her first Australian Open title.

Elena Rybakina

18 months ago, Elena Rybakina burst onto the scene with her win at Wimbledon where she became the youngest women’s champion at Wimbledon in more than 10 years. A couple of years later, Rybakina has shown that that was not a fluke. She remains a steady presence in the Top 5 of the WTA Rankings, and in 2023, reached the Australian Open finals, the second major final of her career. The tall, heavy hitting Rybakina has the type of game that is compatible to the hard courts of Australia, and has demonstrated she is capable of making a deep run there. Her powerful serve and blistering groundstrokes make her a difficult opponent for anyone, and she has the chops to take out tournament favorites such as Sabalenka and Swiatek.

Pretenders – Men’s Singles

Taylor Fritz

For the last couple of years, Taylor Fritz has held the mantle of the best American man on the ATP Tour, holding the highest ranking. However, Fritz is still searching for that Grand Slam success, at least consistently, and that may continue when we begin the season in the Australian Open. Fritz has never made it out of the fourth round of the Australian Open, and that result, in 2022, is the only time he even made it to the fourth round. It could be just a difficult way to begin the year, on the other side of the world, but Fritz has never been able to find his rhythm Down Under. He was dropped in the third round in 2023, and the top-ranked American could be in for another early exit in 2024.

Holger Rune

One of the brightest young stars on the tour is Holger Rune, the young man from Denmark who has quickly made a name for himself. In 2023, he reached three consecutive major quarterfinals at the Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon, but the second half of his year fell short of expectations. He lost 11 of the final 18 matches he played in 2023 which did include matches in the round-robin stages of the ATP Finals, but whether it was injuries or growing pains, Rune struggled at the end of the year. That could carry into 2024 as he now becomes one of the hunted as opposed to the hunter. Rune has a bright future ahead and is already inside the Top 10, but he may not be ready to be considered a major favorite just yet.

Andrey Rublev

The notion that a player can’t win “the big one” is an often used cliché that exists across all sports. For Andrey Rublev, that applies to him playing in Grand Slam quarterfinals. Nine different times Rublev has reached the final eight at the majors, and all nine times he lost. Each has its own circumstances, and you never want to label someone as not being clutch enough to win the important matches, but the numbers don’t lie. Rublev has consistently been in the Top 10 and is undoubtedly one of the best players in the world, but his inability to win in the latter stages of the majors has been a consistent theme, and something that could persist at the 2024 Australian Open.

Pretenders – Women’s Singles

Jessica Pegula

Similar to Andrey Rublev, American Jessica Pegula seems to, unfortunately, save her worst tennis for the quarterfinal stages of majors. The American from upstate New York is 0-6 in her career when playing in the final eight of Grand Slams, and that includes three consecutive quarterfinal appereances at the Australian Open. Now, the final eight of a major is still a great result and there are hundreds of players on tour who would be thrilled with that result, but not Pegula. She has been a consistent player for the last several years now, consistently ranked inside the Top 10, and enters the year as the fifth-ranked player in the world. When the ranking is that high and you have been so close before, expectations are different, and unfortunately for Pegula, she has to show us she can win a quarterfinal before she can be considered a threat to win a major.

Ons Jabeur

The greatest player to ever come from Africa, Ons Jabeur, has been such a consistent force in the women’s game over the last several seasons. The Tunisian has reached three Grand Slam finals in her career, and has the game style, with her craft and variety, that can frustrate the power players she goes up against. But she has not been successful in her career at the Australian Open; in fact, it has been historically her worst event. She made the quarterfinals once, back in 2020, but other than that it has all been first, second and third-round exits for Jabeur, including a second-round departure a year ago. Jabeur has established herself as one of the best players on tour, but her lack of success at the Aussie Open is a trend that could continue into the new season.

Maria Sakkari

Greece’s Maria Sakkari did not enjoy much Grand Slam success in 2023. After falling in the third-round at the Australian Open to start the year, she was bounced from the opening round at each of the next three majors. Those results came on the heels of four poor results in 2022, where she didn’t make it out of the fourth round at any of the four majors. Despite that, Sakkari remains a mainstay in the Top 10 of the rankings, but that ranking doesn’t do much for her when it comes to winning matches on the world’s biggest stage. In her career, Sakkari has never made it to the second week at the Australian Open and, if recent history is any indicator, will be something that continues to plague her.

Sleepers – Men’s Singles

Ben Shelton

The darling of the 2023 U.S. Open actually burst onto the scene on the other side of the world last year. At the Australian Open, in just his second career major, he powered his way into the quarterfinals, which really opened up the eyes of tennis fans to what he could do. A few months later, Shelton became known to more than just tennis fans, but sports in general, when he reached the semifinals at the U.S. Open. Shelton’s youthful energy combined with his dominant serve and outward celebrations made him a popular and somewhat decisive figure. But all of that aside, Shelton has the game to thrive on the hard courts in Australia. With more experience and a fresh start to the season, Shelton could be due for another deep run Down Under.

Alex de Minaur

Competing in your home country for a Grand Slam comes with a lot of expectations, and players can either crumble or thrive under the pressure that it creates. For Alex de Minaur, he will look to do the latter, and use the backing the home fans to make a deep run this year. De Minaur is the highest-ranked Australian player and is aiming to post his best result yet in Melbourne. For the last two years, he has reached the fourth-round but that’s where his runs ended, losing to Jannik Sinner in 2022 and then Novak Djokovic in 2023. Currently ranked 12^th, De Minaur will be out to represent his country in grand fashion, and try to become the first Australian man to win the event since 1976.

Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud has been an intriguing player over the last 12-18 months. He peaked in the ATP Rankings at #2 in the middle part of 2022 and has reached three major finals, so it is a bit counterintuitive to claim that someone with that resume is a sleeper, but injuries and inconsistent play have left Ruud on the outside of the Top 10. Ruud was critical of the ATP schedule in 2023 and decided to sit out and not play many events throughout the year, taking a month off after the Australian Open, and then didn’t play a single grass court event before returning during the hard-court season. Ruud was then dispatched in the second round of the U.S. Open. With a history of success at majors, do not be surprised if Ruud regains that form to begin the year and makes a deep run at the Australian Open.

Sleepers – Women’s Singles

Karolina Muchova

Perhaps the best player on the women’s tour that mainstream tennis fans don’t know about is the Czech Republic’s Karolina Muchova. The hard-hitting Muchova had a resurgent season in 2023, climbing 100 spots in the early part of the year following an injury-riddled 2022 campaign. Muchova reached the finals of the French Open and then the semifinals of U.S. Open and currently finds herself ranked eighth in the world as we head into 2024. Before injuries stifled her progress in 2022, Muchova was a semifinalist at the 2021 Australian Open, and should be one of the event’s favorites as we enter 2024.

Caroline Garcia

In the middle part of 2023, Caroline Garcia peaked at number four in the world rankings and was seemingly destined to make a deep run at one of the majors. At the end of 2022, she was a semifinalist at the U.S. Open which led many to believe her 2023 season would build on that. It didn’t work out that way, however. She did reach the fourth-round of the Australian Open to begin the season, but was inconsistent for much of the rest of the season, which has resulted in her dropping nearly all the way out of the Top 20. Garcia has a fantastic forehand and an extremely aggressive game which causes her to wit many winners but also commits unforced errors. If she can find the consistency and the form the end of 2022, Garcia is a major threat to win the 2024 Australian Open.

Daria Kasatkina

The Australian Open has not been her favorite major during her career, but Daria Kasatkina is playing excellent tennis heading into this year’s version of the event, and could be due for a deep run in Melbourne next week. Ranked 13^th in the world, Kasatkina is one of the craftiest players on tour as her game features a variety of different shots, which makes her a difficult opponent for anyone who lines up on the other side of the net. Kasatkina reached the finals of the Adelaide International in the lead up to the Australian Open, and with her playing confident tennis entering the Australian Open, Kasatkina could be due for a deep run in the year’s first major.